ZHU Yue
Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, during the 20th group study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, emphasized that it is imperative to “comprehensively advance artificial intelligence (AI) innovation in science and technology, industrial development, and application empowerment, improve AI regulatory systems and mechanisms, and firmly maintain the initiative in AI development and governance”. The new generation of large AI models, represented by GPT-5, are expected to be released successively around mid-2025. Unveiling their developmental pathways, assessing the evolution of the inherent power dynamics, and systematically formulating strategies to address future risks are important dimensions to firmly maintain the initiative in both AI development and governance. In terms of development pathways, scaling laws remain valid, and the reasoning, reflection, planning, and autonomous behavioral capacities of large AI models continue to increase rapidly. Regarding power dynamics, technological power is increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few organizations and individuals, while extreme risks that challenge human subjectivity are beginning to emerge. The governance of the new generation of models is increasingly reliant on the models themselves. Practical strategies include effectively promoting the development of this “young” and “youth-oriented” field, building global highlands for scientific and technological innovation and intelligent governance with demonstrative effects, and coordinating relevant legislation and institutional reforms to modernize AI-driven governance. The Artificial Intelligence Law currently under formulation takes large model technology monitoring, risk early warning, and emergency response as its main “entry point” and thematic focus, aiming to address several fundamental issues and propose solutions related to the governance of basic social contradictions and the acceleration of social development momentum.